GRU-Based Short-Term Forecasting for Microgrid Operation: Modeling and Simulation Using Simulink

This paper examines how hour-ahead forecasting uncertainty propagates to microgrid operation under intermittent renewable generation. Using hourly public data for Ontario and focusing on the FSA K0K in 2018, we evaluate four representative months (January, April, July, and December) to capture seasonal dynamics. We benchmark three univariate forecasting approaches for load demand, photovoltaic (PV) generation, and wind generation under a consistent 24-to-1 input setup, including GRU, LSTM, and a persistence baseline. We report point-forecast metrics (RMSE, MAE, and R2) and also provide 90% prediction intervals (PI90) using conformal calibration to quantify uncertainty. To assess downstream impact, forecasts are coupled with a dual-branch MATLAB/Simulink microgrid model. One branch uses True profiles and the other uses forecast-driven Pred inputs, while both branches share the same rule-based EMS and BESS constraints. System performance is evaluated using time-series comparisons and monthly key performance indicators (KPIs) covering grid import and export, grid peak power, battery throughput, and state-of-charge (SoC) statistics. We further report an illustrative cost sensitivity under a flat tariff and a throughput-based degradation proxy. Results show that forecasting performance is target dependent. GRU achieves the best overall point accuracy for load and PV, whereas wind is strongly driven by short term persistence at the one hour horizon, and in this measurement only setup without meteorological covariates the persistence baseline can match or outperform the deep learning models. In the microgrid simulations, Pred and True trajectories remain qualitatively consistent, and SoC-related indicators and peak power remain comparatively consistent across months. In contrast, energy-flow indicators, especially grid export and battery throughput, show larger deviations and dominate the observed cost sensitivity. Overall, the findings suggest that compact hour-ahead forecasts can be adequate to preserve operational reliability under a constraint-driven EMS, while forecast improvements mainly translate into economic efficiency gains rather than reliability-critical benefits.