A system for automated forecasting guidance

An algorithm capable of providing automated guidance for the prediction of all elements included in a public weather forecast is described. A nunber of analogues to the initial circulation, or to a prediction of the next day's circulation, are retrieved and the guidance is based on a statistical analysis of associated observed weather. During the spring of 1979 a pilot model employing the analogue statistics approach, which was designed specifically to provide guidance for Melbourne and only during the month of October, was subjected to trial. The performance of the system during this period is shown, using both statistical and subjective verification techniques, to be not significantly different from that of the official forecasts. The output of the model was not made available to operational meteorologists. Evidence is presented that suggests the operational availablility of the model's output during the spring of 1979 would have improved the Bureau product.