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February 5, 2026Australian meteorological magazine

Australian east coast cyclones III: case study of the storm of August 1986

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Authors

ALAmanda Lynch

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Overview

This case study reveals the inadequacies in cyclone prediction in Sydney, highlighting implications for forecasting tools.

Key Points

  • The study aims to analyze the evolution of the August 1986 cyclone and assess the forecasting models used for prediction.
  • Detailed description of cyclone formation and evolution
  • Performance analysis of operational and research numerical weather prediction models
  • Hindcasting with a focus on precipitation and intensity
  • The operational model was inadequate for predicting the cyclone
  • The research model showed improved guidance at higher resolution
  • Rainfall amounts were severely underestimated despite better location predictions

Cite This Study

Amanda Lynch (1987) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6984359ef1d9ada3c1fb4a22https://doi.org/10.1071/es87019
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