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February 5, 2026Ecology and EvolutionOpen Access

Incorporating Refugia Capacity in Assessing Plant Climate Vulnerability: A Study Case on Alpine Endemics

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Authors

GCGabriele CasazzaMAMartino AdamoMGMaría Guerrina

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Overview

Assesses climate vulnerability in endemic plant species, considering refugia types, indicating urgent conservation needs.

Key Points

  • The research aims to assess the impact of climate change on endemic plant species in the Alps by evaluating refugia types.
  • Classified persistence areas into long-term refugia, holdouts, and stepping stones
  • Utilized species distribution models under two climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585)
  • Evaluated habitat suitability across three future time slices from 2021 to 2080
  • Analyzed the relationship between refugia types and elevation
  • Habitat suitability declines for most populations with higher elevations gaining suitability
  • Long-term refugia are most common under moderate climate change, while holdouts dominate under extreme conditions
  • Stepping stones are rare, indicating challenges for species tracking climate shifts
  • Distribution of refugia types follows an elevational gradient

Cite This Study

Casazza et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/698435b9f1d9ada3c1fb4dd8https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.72555
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