This analysis reviews tropical cyclone behavior and climatic influences in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean, indicating significant forecasting advancements.
From 14 December 1988 to 10 May 1989, twenty tropical cyclones occurred in the South Pacific and southeast Indian Ocean. During the season a cold phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was evident but the effects of this were offset by the rapid development of an active South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) over colder than normal sea-surface temperatures in January and February which contributed to the unusually large number of cyclones which developed east of the dateline. This paper gives an overview of the large-scale circulation features, evaluates the available climatic indices and the effects of broadscale features on cyclone activity before examining the season's cyclones individually. Each cyclone is described together with its track; in addition, the major characteristics are tabulated. Regional verification statistics are also presented. This season was significant in that it was the first with specialist severe weather forecasting centres within each Australian Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre; in addition several new analysis and forecasting techniques and equipment were introduced and the impact of these is discussed. Ongoing problems, such as difficulties in locating systems on the edge of satellite photo coverage, are also mentioned.
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Drosdowsky et al. (1991) studied this question.
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