What question did this study set out to answer?

To analyze the tropical cyclone activity in the South Pacific and southeast Indian Ocean during the 2003-04 season.

February 5, 2026

The South Pacific and southeast Indian Ocean tropical cyclone season 2003-04

Key Points

To analyze the tropical cyclone activity in the South Pacific and southeast Indian Ocean during the 2003-04 season.
Review of tropical cyclone records from December to March.
Comparison with long-term averages of tropical cyclone occurrences.
Analysis of influences such as ENSO and MJO during the season.
Twelve tropical cyclones formed, below the average of 18.9.
Fifth consecutive year of below-average TC occurrences in the region.
Eight out of twenty TCs in the southern hemisphere became intense tropical cyclones, leading to an above average of ITC days.

Abstract

Twelve tropical cyclones (TCs) formed in the combined southeast Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean basins, all of which formed between December and March. This was well below the long-term average of 18.9 and becomes the fifth consecutive year of below average occurrences of TCs over this region. However, of the 20 TCs to occur in the southern hemisphere as a whole, eight of those became intense tropical cyclones (ITC), resulting in an above average number of ITCs and ITC days in the southern hemisphere. The El Niño Southern – Oscillation (ENSO) should not have been a modulating influence, in this ENSO-neutral season. The majority of TCs coincided with active phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).

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