The Australian west coast trough is the most important synoptic feature of the lower troposphere over southwestern Australia during the summer months. As such, its predictability is of great importance because inaccurate predictions of the location and strength of the trough can result In large temperature forecast errors In coastal and adjacent areas. Both the numerical and manual operational forecasts issued by the National Meteorological Analysis Centre regularly fail to forecast accurately the west coast trough. This is attributable to an inability to account correctly for the major mechanisms controlling the movement and development of the trough, namely, land/sea thermal differentials, orography, and the positioning of neighbouring synoptic systems. In this study, the operational numerical model has been enhanced by including a land/sea thermal contrast scheme; more detailed orography; higher vertical and horizontal resolution; and lateral boundary specifications from a hemispheric spectral model. A large number (30) of forecasts were made with the improved numerical model on situations drawn from two consecutive summers. These forecasts exhibited a considerable increase in prognosis skill over the operational manual and numerical forecasts In the positioning and amplitude of the west coast trough.
Skinner et al. (Wed,) studied this question.
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