A study in forecasting fog at Essendon Airport

Meteorological data mainly available at and before 1800 EST are processed with the aim of producing a prediction system for the occurrence of fog conditions between 1800 EST and 0900 EST through midnight at Essendon Airport. Prediction parameters selected are based on aerological soundings and surface observations, and must be initially screened representativeness before use in the system. In the sample of data chosen the method produced 71 percent successful decisions of the occurrence of fog and 95 percent success for non-occurrence of fog verified from the three-hourly synoptic reports. These percentages are supported by an independent test conducted for data of June and July 1962.