Abstract

Research Problem: The populist "Change" mantra of 2015 was ambiguous. It is unclear whether the public perceived "Change" as a call for strengthening democratic institutions (rule of law, accountability) or as a mandate for a strongman to bypass those same institutions, if necessary, to deliver on substantive promises like fighting corruption and insecurity. The "impact" of populism on democratic governance is not just an objective, institutional phenomenon; it is mediated by public opinion. If the public perceives a leader's actions as necessary and legitimate (even if anti-democratic), it fundamentally alters the nature of accountability. Methods/Theory: This study employs a mixed-methods approach, synthesizing data from public opinion surveys, such as the Afrobarometer, with qualitative content analysis of presidential speeches, campaign messaging, and media reports.The analysis is structured around key populist themes: the anti-corruption crusade, nationalist security rhetoric, and economic interventionist policies. Results: Findings indicate a significant dichotomy in public perception. While President Buhari's populist rhetoric initially resonated with a populace weary of corruption and insecurity, leading to high approval ratings, these perceptions eroded over time. The anti-corruption war was increasingly viewed as selective, security strategies were perceived as ineffective and ethnically biased, and economic populism failed to alleviate widespread hardship. Key Contribution to Knowledge: The application of this populist strategy had a deleterious effect on Nigeria's democratic governance. The analysis of public perception reveals a consistent pattern: initial enthusiasm followed by profound disappointment. The anti-corruption war was perceived as partisan, security strategies were seen as biased, and economic populism failed to deliver tangible benefits, leading instead to greater hardship.The impact on democratic institutions was severe. Recommendation: For the future of democracy in Nigeria, this experience holds a critical lesson. While populist appeals can be a powerful tool for political mobilization, they are no substitute for the difficult work of institutional reform, inclusive governance, and sound policymaking. Future research should continue to track public attitudes to assess the long-term impact of this era on Nigeria’s democratic trajectory.

Key Points