In this study we analyzed variability of precipitation patterns all over The Middle East and North Africa and Türkiye (MENA-T) based on in-situ data from 150 stations and hourly ERA5 reanalysis data with the spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°. The study period covers 85 years between 1940 and 2024. Long-term variability of 13 duration, magnitude, intensity, and frequency-based precipitation indices are mapped to reveal the spatial characteristics. Results indicated that reanalysis data are capable of hindcasting in-situ precipitation data with an overall average correlation coefficient of 0.72 (varying between 0.56 and a maximum of 0.82 among all 150 stations). The results highlight a distinct north–south dipole in precipitation trends across the region. Duration-based indices reveal a significant increase in consecutive dry days across the southwestern Arabian Peninsula, Libya, southern Algeria, and northern Egypt signaling a trend toward intensifying aridity in these already dry areas. Conversely, northern coastal and mountainous zones show decreasing dry spell durations, reflecting a shift toward more frequent or prolonged wet periods. Magnitude- and intensity-based indices, such as annual total wet-day precipitation, precipitation from very wet days more than 95%, and maximum 1-day precipitation indicate an increase in extreme rainfall in the wetter northern regions, particularly in Türkiye, Iran, and Iraq. In contrast, these indices exhibit declining trends across southern MENA-T. Similarly, frequency-based indices show a reduction in wet-day occurrences across arid zones, while the Mediterranean and highland regions display modest increases, suggesting growing disparities in regional hydroclimatic behavior under ongoing climatic shifts.
Othman et al. (Sun,) studied this question.