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February 8, 2026European Heart Journal

Prospective validation of a self-report-based model for coronary artery calcium screening and assessment of treatment gaps in lipid-lowering therapy

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Why the study?

Broad implementation of coronary artery calcium scoring via CT is limited by accessibility and cost, prompting the need to validate a self-report-based prediction model for pre-screening.

Does a self-report-based prediction model accurately identify individuals with CACS ≥100 and reveal gaps in lipid-lowering therapy in a general population aged 59-60?

Population

2,377 men and women aged 59–60 from the Swedish general population

Comparison

Self-report-based risk model vs observed CACS ≥100 on CT screening

Design

Prospective validation study

Key result

Self-report model accurately predicted 28.4% prevalence of CACS ≥100; 64% with CACS ≥100 lacked lipid-lowering therapy and only 8% met LDL-C targets.

Authors

EHEva HagbergEBE BjornsonMAMartin Adiels

Discussion

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Member takes

Overview

May support midlife risk stratification; leaves open prospective validation before guiding lipid-lowering therapy.

Key Points

  • The study aimed to validate a self-report model for predicting coronary artery calcium and assess lipid-lowering therapy adequacy.
  • Recruited 2,377 individuals aged 59-60 from the Swedish general population.
  • Used a web-based questionnaire to estimate risk for coronary atherosclerosis.
  • Conducted further evaluation, including blood tests and CT screening, for a high-risk subgroup of 563 individuals.
  • Predicted probability of coronary artery calcium score (CACS) ≥100 in the high-risk group was 28.3%.
  • Observed prevalence of CACS ≥100 was 28.4% (160/563), showing strong model calibration.
  • Among those with CACS ≥100, 64% were not on lipid-lowering therapy.
  • Only 8% of individuals had LDL-C at or below the target of 1.8 mmol/L.

Structured PICO

Does a self-report-based prediction model accurately identify individuals with CACS ≥100 and reveal gaps in lipid-lowering therapy in a general population aged 59-60?

P
Population
2,377 men and women aged 59-60 from the Swedish general population, with a high-risk subgroup (n=563) undergoing further evaluation.
I
Intervention
Self-report-based prediction model (web-based questionnaire) to estimate risk of moderate to severe coronary atherosclerosis.
C
Comparator
Observed coronary artery calcium scoring (CACS) via computed tomography (CT).
O
Outcome
Validation of the self-report-based prediction model in identifying individuals with CACS ≥100.surrogate

A self-report-based prediction model accurately identifies individuals at high risk for CACS ≥100, revealing that over 90% of these high-risk individuals receive inadequate lipid-lowering therapy.

Cite This Study

Hagberg et al. (2025) studied this question. Self-report model accurately predicted 28.4% prevalence of CACS ≥100; 64% with CACS ≥100 lacked lipid-lowering therapy and only 8% met LDL-C targets.

synapsesocial.com/papers/698828330fc35cd7a8847763https://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehaf784.3597
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