ABSTRACT This paper proposes a testable framework wherein a ~1. 5 M⊕ planet at 2. 3 AU, with Mars as a tidally-locked satellite, underwent tidal disruption at Jupiter's Roche limit approximately 400-500 Ma. The framework addresses several unexplained features of the inner solar system through a unified mechanism, including Mars's equatorial bulge, Valles Marineris orientation, Mercury's composition and orbit, Europa's formation, and concentrated mass extinctions on Earth. Version 2. 2 update: Analysis of Phaeton as a water world demonstrates that if Europa's ice/water mass (~3. 6 × 10²¹ kg) originated as Phaeton's ocean layer, the resulting planet would feature 6. 1 km average ocean depth covering 88% of the surface. Critically, water worlds exhibit superior tidal stability: the fluid ocean layer efficiently dissipates tidal energy (Q~1-10 vs Q~100-1000 for solid rock), extending stable tidal lock duration from 100-500 Ma to 500-2000 Ma. This extended timeline permits evolution of complex ecosystems and directly explains Europa's formation during Roche disruption. The water world scenario makes specific testable predictions for Europa Clipper (2030) and JUICE (2031) missions. Preliminary calculations suggest debris velocities (28-50 km/s) from Roche disruption, combined with Mars's ejection velocity (~20 km/s), would yield relative impact velocities (10-30 km/s) consistent with observed crater morphology. Version 2. 1 update: Addresses the critical requirement for hyperbolic encounter trajectory through orbital resonance mechanisms. The hyperbolic trajectory requirement for Jupiter flyby is addressed through orbital resonance breaking or Kozai-Lidov mechanisms, which can pump Phaeton's eccentricity over millions of years to achieve the necessary high-velocity Jupiter flyby (vᵣel > 35 km/s). The hypothesis makes specific, falsifiable predictions testable through N-body orbital simulations, Mars sample return missions (2033-2037), and Europa characterization (2030-2031). A transparentconfidence assessment is provided: ultra-conservative Bayesian probability estimates yield 30-40% plausibility pending computational verification, while evaluation of convergent physical evidence (including water world advantages) suggests 65-75% confidence may be more realistic. The primary research question is not whether this framework is correct, but whether it is physically plausible—if even a small fraction of parameter space (1 in 500 simulations) permits stable configurations, the framework merits serious consideration regardless of prior expectations.
Andrew Haidinyak (Thu,) studied this question.