Study of Changes in the Concentration of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere in the Ural Region Based on Reanalysis and Satellite Measurements. Part 1. Spatial-Temporal Variations in the Co and Ch Concentration

The paper considers spatiotemporal variations in the atmospheric CO and CH concentrations near the surface based on the CAMS reanalysis data and GOSAT satellite measurements in the Ural Federal District (UFD) for the period 2010–2021. The uncertainty of the used data is estimated. The total uncertainty of CO and CH concentrations is primarily due to the uncertainty of ground-based measurements. The CAMS reanalysis data most accurately reflect the results of ground-based CO concentration measurements. On average, they overestimate these data by 0.59 ± 0.102 ppm. At the same time, the CH concentration values obtained on the basis of reanalysis are, on average, 71.57 ± 4.04 ppb lower compared to the results of ground-based measurements. In contrast, the results of GOSAT satellite measurements are in good agreement with the data of ground-based CH concentration measurements. On average, they show overestimated values by 4.68 ± 4.05 ppb, while for carbon dioxide CO there is an underestimation of 3.51 ± 0.104 ppm. An analysis of the spatial distribution of interannual changes showed that in the eastern and northeastern parts of the Urals Federal District, in some years, there is a significant annual increase in the concentration of CO and CH, reaching values of 16 ppm and 90 ppb, respectively. Particularly high values are recorded in the hot season, when the air temperature exceeds 15 °C. According to the reanalysis, in the Tyumen Region, the Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs, the maximum values of methane CH concentration during the year are observed in July-August and exceed the values in the winter period. A sharp increase in CO concentration was established for the entire territory of the Urals Federal District in 2012 and 2016. For CH, a sharp increase in concentration occurred in 2012, 2016 and 2019.