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February 11, 2026Advances in Civil Engineering0 citationsOpen Access

Predicting the Compressive Strength of Ash‐Based Concrete Using Machine Learning Approach: Paving the Way to Sustainable Concrete

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MAMahder Ketemaw AbitewBahir Dar UniversityMYMitiku Damtie YehualawBahir Dar UniversityHLHanibal LemmaBahir Dar University

Key Points

  • The aim is to predict the compressive strength of ash-blended concrete using machine learning algorithms.
  • Evaluated 13 different ash sources as cement alternatives
  • Collected a dataset of 1148 concrete samples with varying ash amounts
  • Developed five machine learning models: ANN, SVR, RF, DT, and XGBoost
  • Conducted statistical analysis of compressive strength across different curing periods
  • Calcined red clay–rice husk ash mixes showed the highest compressive strength
  • Optimal ash replacement for cement was determined to be 7.5%-12.4%
  • XGBoost demonstrated the highest predictive accuracy among the models

Abstract

Industrial wastes, agricultural byproducts, and rock dust are considered suitable replacements for cement in eco‐friendly concrete production due to their comparable chemical properties. This study evaluates 13 ash sources as potential cement alternatives, explores machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict compressive strength () of ash‐blended concrete, and determines the optimal amount of ash to replace cement for sustainable concrete production. A dataset of 1148 concrete samples incorporating various ash amounts was collected, and five ML models, including artificial neural network (ANN), support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), were developed to predict the of ash‐based concrete. The statistical analysis showed that concrete mix incorporating calcined red clay–rice husk (CRC–RH) ash consistently achieved the highest strength across all curing periods. This was followed by mixes containing water hyacinth ash and marble dust. This superior performance is likely attributed to the higher content of tricalcium aluminate and silicate, which enhance workability and early strength development. Among the ML models, XGBoost showed superior predictive accuracy, with the overall performance ranking as: XGBoost >RF >SVR >ANN >DT. Furthermore, this study determined that replacing 7.5%–12.4% of cement with ash maintained the optimal . These findings highlight the potential of waste‐driven alternative construction materials in sustainable concrete production and demonstrate ML as a powerful tool for efficiently predicting ash‐blended concrete strength, paving the way for optimized concrete mix design for greener construction.

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Cite This Study

Abitew et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/698c1c73267fb587c655ef0dhttps://doi.org/10.1155/adce/5558821
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