Policy Representation in Multilevel Polities: Vote-switching in the European Union

In quasi-federal systems, citizens engage in vote switching between electoral arenas. The reasons behind it remain contested and the extent to which issue congruence matters for vote-switching remains debatable. Our study asks whether congruence matters for choosing different parties in national and European arenas and whether European considerations drive this behaviour. To answer these questions, we use individual-level data from the latest waves of the European Election Study (2004-2024) combined with data on party system polarisation. Our results suggest that vote switching is associated with arena-specific issues, with vote-switchers making choices in the European arena driven by congruence on the EU dimension depending on the level of polarisation of the party system. In recent years, vote switchers are moving towards Eurosceptic parties especially in systems where polarisation on the issue of Europe is high. These findings demonstrate that vote switching in multilevel contexts is shaped by structured issue preferences and the clarity of party alternatives.