Abstract Rawinsonde measurements from Central Europe were evaluated to investigate environments associated with lightning. The study compared lightning and non‐lightning profiles, pre‐ and post‐convective profiles, and varying lightning flash rates. In total, 137, 501 quality‐controlled measurements from 2006 to 2018 were used, along with 327 convective parameters. Their performance was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC). The Lifted Index (LI) and its effective version (LIₑff) are the most robust predictors of lightning. Other useful parameters are CAPE in a hail growth zone (CAPEHGL), cold cloud depth (Coldₗayer), and equilibrium level temperature and height (ELₜmp, ELₕgt). 1–4 km relative humidity (RH₁4 km) is important for thunderstorm development in warm environments, while in the cold season lightning is associated with stronger atmospheric flow. Most thunderstorms form with CIN greater than −100 J kg −1. Non‐lightning but unstable profiles show limited instability in the convective cloud layer below −10°C, highlighting the role of buoyancy in subfreezing temperatures.
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Patryk Matczak
SKA Polska (Poland)
Mateusz Taszarek
SKA Polska (Poland)
Adrian Sobisiak
Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań
Geophysical Research Letters
Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań
SKA Polska (Poland)
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Matczak et al. (Mon,) studied this question.
synapsesocial.com/papers/6996a818ecb39a600b3ee748 — DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl119901