Estimation of Number of Buildings Damaged and Evacuees at Each Shelter in Bunkyo Ward During a Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake

Estimates based on damage assessments from 2022 indicated that building damage was predominantly concentrated in the eastern shelter areas of Bunkyo Ward, with overlapping zones of total destruction and fire damage. However, some evacuation centers remain overcapacity, particularly those that accommodated a high number of burned evacuees. In 2022, the number of evacuees in each shelter decreased to between 250 and 1,200, with a higher percentage of evacuees attributed to water cutoffs rather than building damage. The study revealed that shelters must be prepared to accommodate large numbers of evacuees, ranging from several hundred to a thousand, particularly elderly people.