Rural shrinkage is increasingly expressed through changing residential mobility, housing under occupancy, and intermittent dwelling use, rather than a simple linear process of permanent outmigration and abandonment. Yet empirical measurement of occupancy dynamics and the service-mediated mechanisms shaping residence stability remains limited. This study proposes an evidence-driven and explainable assessment framework that links energy-informed occupancy dynamics with settlement building area and mechanism identification, using Fuyuan City as a case study. Daily electricity consumption time series from 2021 to 2024 are used to infer occupancy dynamics and detect behavioral signatures of long term residence, seasonal residence, return visits, and vacancy. Shape-based temporal clustering identifies six occupancy trajectories, revealing pronounced heterogeneity in mobility rhythms within the rural settlement system. Settlement vacancy-related built-environment changes are characterized from 2 m remote sensing imagery, using a trained YOLO-based building detection workflow, producing settlement-level total building area as a physical indicator of the development intensity. Integrating these behavioral measures with multi-source spatial factors, the mechanism model shows that development, governance, and environmental conditions influence residence stability primarily through service provision. Among service domains, education services exhibit the strongest direct association with long-term residence stability, while transport and daily life services show modest positive effects and healthcare presents a smaller positive effect. Development conditions positively promote all service types, whereas governance and environmental context display differentiated and, in some pathways, opposing effects across services. Overall, the framework enables interpretable monitoring of rural shrinkage dynamics by jointly quantifying occupancy trajectories, settlement morphology, and service-mediated pathways shaping residential outcomes.
Liu et al. (Fri,) studied this question.