From Waste to Worth: Spatially Differentiated Pathways for Livestock Governance in the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin is a vital agricultural and ecological region in China. In recent years, intensified livestock farming has substantially increased chemical oxygen demand (COD) as well as nitrogen and phosphorus emissions, forming a cross-media pollution chain that threatens soil, water, and air. To support sustainable development and agricultural waste utilization, this study constructs a spatiotemporal nested resource estimation model using multi-source data from 1995 to 2022. We then examine the temporal evolution and spatial clustering of livestock waste and develop a multidimensional analytical framework that integrates environmental carrying capacity, socioeconomic factors, and regional heterogeneity. Based on these data-driven assessments, we propose a three-pronged governance system—regional control, technology matching, and institutional innovation—to enable spatially adaptive and actionable solutions for basin-scale pollution mitigation, thereby supporting coordinated ecological and economic development in the Yellow River Basin.