Trend Analysis of Herbal Medicines in the Treatment of Diabetes a Case Study in the Kumasi Metropolis

Diabetes is a chronic disease that arises when the pancreas fails to produce sufficient insulin or when the body is unable to effectively utilize the insulin it produces. It is one of the major causes of premature illness and non -communicable diseases accounting for 60% of all death worldwide. This research was undertaken to unfold the current pattern of diabetes cases in the Kumasi Metropolis and to come out with an adequate model for forecasting future trends. Therefore, the research questions include; what is the trend and an adequate model for forecasting future diabetes cases in Kumasi Metropolis? A seven year (2006-2013) secondary data was used for this study. .It was sourced from the Amen scientific herbal clinic with which a time series trend analysis was used to perform the trend analysis using Minitab version 16. The model developed from quadratic trend was Y(t)=36.78+0.0275*t-0.00354*t2. Analysis of the data was carried out using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA (ARIMA) approach with the help of Gretl. The presence of unit root was tested using the ADF test on the time series data from the year 2006 – 2013. The p – values of the ADF showed the stationarity of the data therefore data is good for ARIMA. This research was undertaken with the prior motive to develop an adequate model for forecasting future trends. It evolved that ARIMA (1, 1,1) fits the data well. We therefore recommend that it should be used in forecasting future cases of this disease.