This paper investigates the economic impact of new casino openings on local payroll income and employment growth in Arkansas, following a 2018 constitutional amendment that authorized casino gaming in three cities. Applying the synthetic control method and utilizing the Internal Revenue Service tax return data on salaries and wages and the U.S. Census Bureau's County Business Patterns data on employment, the author found that the casino openings did not lead to a measurable increase in either outcome at the city or county level compared to their synthetic counterparts or the overall Arkansas average. This result directly challenges the assumption of positive economic spillovers from casino development, suggesting that the expected benefits in job creation and wage earnings have not materialized in the medium run.
Masanori Kuroki (2026) studied this question.