When Artificial Intelligence Meets Cultural Knowledge: Forecasting Storm Surge Risks, Predicting Disaster Preparedness, and Building Resilient Coastal Communities in the Philippines

This study assesses immediate storm surge impacts and community responses to Supertyphoon Pepito in Bicol, Philippines, and provides a comprehensive mixed-method analysis of storm surge risk and disaster risk preparedness. Drawing on 7,925 household observations from CBMS and 13 in-depth household narratives, we (1) document Pepito ’s localized impacts and community coping rooted in ecological cues, faith, and collective action; (2) forecast hazard, exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability; (3) predict disaster risk preparedness; and (4) evaluate the lived experiences and resilience of the community. Methodologically, we integrate quantitative (PCA logistic regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, SVM, Decision Tree) and qualitative approaches (hermeneutic phenomenology, narrative inquiry, thematic analysis, and anthropology at home). PCA reduced seven domains (housing, utilities, assets, livelihood, education, demography, and environmental vulnerability) into categories used as predictors. Econometric results show significant positive associations between preparedness and housing quality (β = 0.24, p < 0.01), utilities (β ≈ 0.32, p < 0.01), assets and connectivity (β ≈ 0.45, p < 0.001), livelihood (farming β = 0.67; fishing β = 1.28; p < 0.001), and prior calamity exposure (β = 0.22, p < 0.01). Random Forest forecasts rank barangays by susceptibility as follows: Tagas (19.5, Very High), Telegrafo (18.8, High), and Sabang (18.0, High), while XGBoost yields the highest prediction accuracy (0.87–0.93). Qualitative findings emphasize hybrid readiness, where indigenous ecological indicators complement scientific warnings. We introduce three culturally grounded frameworks, ORAGON, ILAWOD, and TANDAYAG, that integrate science, culture, and community values in disaster management. ORAGON embodies Bicolano courage and collective adaptation, ILAWOD promotes a whole-of-community DRRM approach, and TANDAYAG reflects the spiritual belief that “the sea fights the typhoon.” We advocate culturally sensitive DRRM policies that integrate local knowledge with data-driven forecasts to strengthen community collaboration, government accountability, and sustainable environmental stewardship, prioritizing targeted infrastructure, early warning, and livelihood support interventions in high-risk barangays.