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February 23, 2026Scientific Reports0 citationsOpen Access

Reduction of the space dimension of parameters characterizing geomagnetic storms during the Solar Cycle 24

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ASAgnieszka SiluszykAGAgnieszka GilRMRenata Modzelewska

Key Points

  • This research focuses on reducing the dimensionality of parameters characterizing geomagnetic storms during Solar Cycle 24.
  • Analyzed thirteen geomagnetic storms using twelve heliospheric and geomagnetic parameters.
  • Employed Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to reduce dimensionality from 12 to 4 while preserving essential information.
  • Identified key geomagnetic indices and solar wind properties affecting storm behavior.
  • Achieved at least 80% variance explanation with 3–4 principal components.
  • First principal component dominated by geomagnetic indices indicating overall disturbance level.
  • PCA showed effectiveness in linking space weather drivers to power-system loads.

Abstract

Space weather phenomena related to solar activity are usually considered a threat mainly at high geomagnetic latitudes, yet recent studies show that countries at lower latitudes are not immune to their effects. In this work, we analyse thirteen geomagnetic storms during Solar Cycle 24 (2010–2021) using a set of twelve heliospheric and geomagnetic parameters. We aim to reduce the dimensionality of this parameter space from R^12 to R^4 (or less) while preserving the essential physical information. To this end, we apply Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and show that the first 3–4 principal components explain at least 80\% (typically 82–91\%) of the total variance. The first component is consistently dominated by geomagnetic indices (Kp, Ec, Dst, ap, AE) and, in most storms, also by B, Bᵦ and Eᵧ, thus capturing the overall level of geomagnetic disturbance. The second and third components are mainly governed by solar wind properties, with robust pairings such as (SWs, SWt) and (Bᵦ, Eᵧ), while Bᵧ often forms a separate weakly coupled mode. We further use the leading components to fit simple regression models linking space-weather drivers to power-system loads and demonstrate that PCA can act as a diagnostic of unreliable interpolation in data with gaps. Our results indicate that PCA provides an efficient and physically interpretable reduction of heliogeomagnetic parameter space, facilitating the construction of statistical and machine-learning models for assessing and forecasting the impact of geomagnetic storms on technological infrastructure.

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Cite This Study

Siluszyk et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/699ba0b872792ae9fd870cd3https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-40415-8
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