Agricultural Resilience Under Threat: Assessing Technical Efficiency Across Conflict Contexts in the Sahara–Sahelian Region

Agriculture serves as a critical foundation for livelihoods, food security, and sustainable development across the Sahara–Sahelian region. However, this vital sector faces mounting pressures from recurrent armed conflicts that systematically undermine its resilience and long-term sustainability. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of agricultural technical efficiency across 23 African countries in the Sahara–Sahelian region from 2009 to 2021, employing a robust bias-corrected bootstrap Data Envelopment Analysis approach. The findings reveal a concerning regional deterioration, with technical efficiency declining at an average annual rate of 1.7% throughout the study period. Conflict-affected countries demonstrated distinctive vulnerability patterns, exhibiting both higher average efficiency levels (0.875) and greater volatility, with annual declines of 1.8%. Sub-regional analysis highlights the Sahel’s particular fragility, where efficiency decreased by 2.2% yearly, nearly double the decline rate observed in North Africa. The most severe efficiency losses were recorded in countries experiencing intense and protracted conflict, notably Burkina Faso (4.0%) and Mali (3.5%), underscoring the severe association between conflict exposure and the erosion of agricultural productive capacity. These findings underscore the importance of developing integrated strategies that simultaneously address security challenges, climate adaptation, and institutional reform for effective resilience-building. Policy recommendations highlight the importance of enhanced regional connectivity, knowledge transfer, and targeted investments in agricultural capacity building—all aligned with both Sustainable Development Goals and the African Union’s Agenda 2063 objectives for achieving sustainable agricultural transformation in conflict-affected regions.