Phenomenological Analysis of Anomalies in Space Probes: Correlation with Solar Events, Cumulative Dielectric Damage, and a Falsifiable Prediction for Voyager 1 (2026)

This document presents a phenomenological analysis of electronic anomalies inspace probes (Voyager 1 and 2, Galileo, Pioneer, Cosmos satellites) and their possible relationship with solar energetic proton events (> 10 MeV). It starts fromthe hypothesis that these protons cause cumulative dielectric damage in electroniccomponents, manifesting as functional failures when a critical threshold is reached.Eleven documented cases between 1970 and 2025 are analyzed, including the bit flipin Voyager 2 (2010), the tape recorder failure in Galileo (2002), and the catastrophicfailures of the Soviet RORSAT satellites Cosmos 367, 954, 1402, and 1900. A mathematical model of accumulation with acceleration (α = 0.002 − 0.005 days−1) thatfits the observed data is proposed. A falsifiable prediction is presented: a significantprobability of irreversible failure in Voyager 1 between June 12 and July 2, 2026.The analysis explicitly acknowledges its limitations and does not claim to establishdefinitive causality, but rather to offer an alternative interpretation based on publicdata and technical literature from NASA/JPL.Note on temporality: This analysis is deposited with a timestamp prior to theevents it analyzes (June 2026). It does not seek subsequent notoriety, but ratherto document a working hypothesis based on public data. Whatever the outcome,the document will remain as a record of an exploratory analysis, contributing to theopen scientific archive.