Two-stage decomposition analysis reveals drivers of carbon reduction in China's road transportation, suggesting policy implications.
China faces urgent road transportation carbon emission (RTC) reduction under its “dual carbon” goals. Achieving RTC reduction necessitates not only identifying key driving factors but also clarifying the sectoral linkages closely associated with RTC. Within an input–output framework, this study integrated structural decomposition analysis (SDA) and production‐theoretical decomposition analysis (PDA) to construct a two‐stage decomposition method. Applying this approach, we examined the drivers and sectoral connections of RTC from 2002 to 2020. The findings reveal that (1) due to its service‐oriented nature, 72.6% of RTC stemmed from transportation services fulfilling intermediate demand from other sectors, with the construction sector exhibiting the largest intermediate demand and thus contributing most significantly to RTC. (2) The final demand effect was the dominant driver behind RTC growth, accounting for a cumulative increase of 590.3 Mt, though its influence has weakened since 2017. (3) The steady decline in emission intensity served as the primary factor reducing RTC, resulting in a cumulative decrease of 190.8 Mt, attributable mainly to advances in energy technology, improved energy efficiency, and shifts in energy structure. We recommend that the transportation department should strive to improve energy technology and enhance efficiency, thereby effectively reducing carbon emission intensity. Meanwhile, government should actively adjust industrial structure and optimize transportation layout to further reduce RTC.
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Wang et al. (2026) studied this question.
Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context: