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February 25, 20260 citations

T-periodic dynamics in a 3D delayed quasispecies model.

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NMNolbert MoralesETEdward A. TurnerJZJorge L. Zapata

Key Points

  • To analyze periodic dynamics and error-threshold behavior in a delayed quasispecies model.
  • Constructed a delayed quasispecies model using delay differential equations.
  • Examined conditions for T-periodic solutions under varying mutation probabilities and fitness functions.
  • Applied topological degree arguments to determine the existence of periodic orbits.
  • Identified conditions under which nontrivial positive periodic orbits exist.
  • Showed that fluctuating environments can sustain oscillatory genotype distributions.
  • Established that unidirectional mutations lead to the extinction of the master sequence without time delays.

Abstract

We study periodic dynamics and error-threshold behavior in a delayed quasispecies model consisting of a master sequence (x0) and two mutant populations (x1,x2). The system, formulated as delay differential equations with time-periodic replication rates, yields new conditions for the existence and absence of T-periodic solutions. Using topological degree arguments, we show that when mutation probabilities (Qji) lie strictly between 0 and 1 and at least one fitness function (fj) is periodic, the system supports nontrivial positive periodic orbits, with or without backward mutations. This shows that fluctuating environments, such as circadian or treatment-induced cycles, can sustain oscillatory genotype distributions. Conversely, if mutations are strictly unidirectional and the master sequence is consistently dominated in fitness, no positive T-periodic orbit arises. In this regime, the master sequence decays monotonically to extinction without time delays, while time delays induce non-monotonic decay, recovering the classical error-threshold phenomenon and linking it to cancer-related quasispecies dynamics.

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Cite This Study

Morales et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/699e9143f5123be5ed04eaffhttps://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2026.2631218
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