On the Possibility of Using Decayless Kink Oscillations of Coronal Loops to Forecast Powerful Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections

The paper studies decayless kink oscillations of solar coronal loops and changes in their behavior in active regions (ARs) before powerful solar flares (class M- and X) and in the absence of powerful flares. To this end, we examined 14 ARs with and 14 ARs without powerful flares. For each event, images obtained during 4 hours before the flare in the 171 Å and 94 Å AIA/SDO channels at 12-second intervals were analyzed. For ARs without powerful flares, arbitrary time intervals of similar duration were considered. Since the decayless oscillations have very low amplitude (1–2 AIA/SDO pixels), we used the Motion Magnification technique to amplify the amplitude of these oscillations. Time-distance maps were constructed using the processed images in the 171 Å channel, from which oscillatory patterns were extracted “manually”. Wavelet analysis was performed to detect changes in the oscillation period. No systematic changes were found. No obvious differences in the behavior of oscillations in ARs with and without powerful flares were detected either. In addition, information was obtained on coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from ARs in the vicinity of the time intervals under consideration. Based on the study of a small sample of events, we came to a preliminary conclusion that the registration and analysis of decayless kink oscillations of high (~100–600 Mm) coronal loops by the above method is not promising for predicting powerful flares and CMEs.