Purpose: This study aimed to investigate the association between blood inflammatory markers, including C-reactive protein (CRP) and interleukin-6 (IL-6), and the short-term prognosis of pneumoconiosis, and to develop a multifactorial prediction model. Patients and Methods: Clinical data of 813 pneumoconiosis patients admitted to two regional tertiary hospitals from October 2016 to August 2023 were retrospectively collected and randomly divided into a training set (n=568) and an external validation set (n=245). Variables were screened by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, a multifactorial logistic regression column-line graph model was constructed, and the relationship between risk factors and prognosis was analyzed by multifactorial Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival curves. The model performance was verified by consistency index (C index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC). Results: The mean age was 62.1 years in the training set and 63.3 years in the validation set, with mortality rates of 11.1% and 11.9%, respectively. LASSO regression identified age, dust exposure duration, dyspnea, blood oxygen saturation (SpO 2 ), neutrophil count, CRP, and IL-6 as predictors. CRP (OR=1.028, 95% CI: 1.016– 1.040) and IL-6 (OR=1.020, 95% CI: 1.010– 1.030) were independent risk factors for poor short-term prognosis (both P 0.05). DCA and CIC indicated high clinical value. High CRP/IL-6 levels were associated with significantly reduced survival (log-rank P< 0.001). Conclusion: The prediction model based on CRP, IL-6, and clinical characteristics effectively identifies pneumoconiosis patients at high risk of short-term poor prognosis, providing a reliable basis for early intervention due to its high discriminatory power and clinical applicability. Keywords: pneumoconiosis, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, prediction model, inflammation
Huang et al. (Sun,) studied this question.