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February 28, 2026IMF Working PaperOpen Access

How Effectively Can Current LLMs Analyze Macrofinancial Issues?

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Authors

PGPaola GanumTATohid Atashbar

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Overview

This evaluation assesses LLM accuracy in macrofinancial analysis, highlighting strengths and limitations.

Key Points

  • The study aims to evaluate how effectively current LLMs analyze macrofinancial issues using human assessments as a comparison.
  • Empirical evaluation of LLM performance on IMF Article IV staff reports from 2016-2024
  • Testing several GPT models for qualitative ratings and binary question accuracy
  • Using human economists' assessments as a benchmark for comparison
  • LLMs achieved an average accuracy of 71-75% on qualitative ratings in 2024
  • LLMs reached a 76-81% exact match rate on binary questions
  • Models showed optimistic bias, assigning higher ratings than human experts
  • LLMs struggled with open-ended questions requiring deep contextual judgment

Cite This Study

Ganum et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69a287010a974eb0d3c02620https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229038935.001
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