This paper examines the compatibility between Finland’s standing security commitments and the prevailing fiscal corridor under a prolonged closure of the eastern land border. The analysis focuses on four expenditure blocks—defence, allied presence and host nation support, border management, and support for eastern border regions—and assesses their interaction with debt dynamics, interest expenditure, and the corrective net expenditure path under the EU Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP). Using an “observed minimum + corridor range” approach, the study identifies threshold conditions for portfolio manageability and evaluates fiscal pressure over the 2026–2030 horizon. The paper provides a structured framework for assessing security-related commitments within binding macro-fiscal constraints.
Sergei Gladkov (Sat,) studied this question.