Key result
US adult obesity prevalence more than doubles since 1990, reaching ~43% in 2022.
Why the study?
There is a lack of detailed population-level estimates and projections of obesity by race and ethnicity, state, sex, and age necessary for informing health policy and reducing disparities.
Population
11,315,421 US adults aged 20 years and older from population-based sampling
Comparison
Obesity prevalence by race and ethnicity, state, sex, and age groups
Design
Observational analysis using NHANES, BRFSS, and Gallup Daily Survey data with spatiotemporal gaussian process regression and Bayesian spline models
Authors
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Captured external expert commentary on this paper, strongest first. Original sources are linked where available.
“Among the populations that are showing concerning trends, we saw that younger adults were experiencing faster increases in obesity, compared with middle-aged and older adults. And this is particularly concerning because this means that these people are going to be living longer with the health-related concerns due to obesity and those associated health care costs, the burden to the health care system, etc.”
“Despite the significant impact obesity has had on public health and the importance of tracking its trends for policy setting, recently updated estimates for current rates of obesity prevalence and projected future trends are not available by race and ethnicity subgroups within US states.”
“Predictions in states with historically high levels of obesity, such as Mississippi, suggest that the prevalence of obesity may be plateauing in some locations.”
Urges clinicians to prioritize weight management for CV risk reduction; reinforces need for effective prevention research across subgroups.
Observational (n=11,315,421)
Yes
Absolute Event Rate: 42.5% vs 19.3%
The prevalence of obesity in the US has increased significantly since 1990 and is projected to reach 46.9% of the adult population by 2035, highlighting a growing public health burden with substantial demographic and geographic disparities.
DeCleene et al. (2026) conducted an observational in Obesity (n=11,315,421). Time (2022 vs 1990) vs. 1990 was evaluated on Obesity prevalence (BMI ≥30). The prevalence of obesity among US adults increased from 19.3% in 1990 to 42.5% in 2022, and is forecasted to reach 46.9% by 2035, with substantial variation by race, ethnicity, sex, and state.
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