Abstract The boreal forest biome is warming rapidly, impacting disturbance regimes and global climate. Boreal forest fires have intensified, initiating both climate warming (positive) and climate cooling (negative) impacts across spatial and temporal scales. Here we estimate climate impacts from boreal fires in Alaska and western Canada between 2001 and 2019 using integrated net radiative forcing metrics combining greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions from combustion, vegetation recovery, greenhouse gas emissions from fire-induced permafrost thaw and changes in surface albedo over a 70-year period. We find that fires across Alaska contributed, on average, to net climate warming (0.35 ± 4.66 W m −2 of burned area; one standard deviation), while fires across Canada contributed to net cooling (−2.88 ± 4.17 W m −2 of burned area; one standard deviation). Climate-warming fires occur preferentially in dry, high-elevation, steep permafrost landscapes with high pre-fire black spruce coverage and combust more carbon per unit area. Climate-cooling fires are driven by longer spring snow exposure and occur more frequently in continental regions near the treeline. This fine-scale characterization of component and net radiative forcing advances our understanding of the biogeophysical impacts of fires on high-latitude climate and highlights the need to prioritize fire management in carbon-rich permafrost regions to curb long-term warming.
Gerrevink et al. (2026) studied this question.