Abstract Against global climate change and green development consensus, China’s low-carbon city pilot policy serves as a crucial tool for ecological–economic balance. Using panel data from 284 cities (2001–2023) with multitemporal difference-in-differences models, this study examines policy effects on industrial structure upgrading. Results indicate the policy significantly inhibits industrial transformation by impeding quantitative evolution, qualitative improvement, and intersector coordination through raised compliance costs and crowded-out innovation resources. Effects show multidimensional heterogeneity: weaker inhibition in eastern and high-grade cities, and stronger impacts in central/western regions and low-grade cities. Policy intensity exhibits nonlinear relationships, while temporal dynamics reveal strengthening quantitative inhibition but marginally weakening qualitative inhibition over time. These findings support designing spatially and temporally differentiated environmental policies with dynamic intensity adjustments.
Lyu et al. (2026) studied this question.