Turkey as a middle power in Central Asia: regional cooperation amid geopolitical competition with Russia, China, and the United States

Introduction Amid the transformation of the global order and intensified Eurasian competition, Turkey has expanded its engagement with Central Asia through connectivity diplomacy, identity-based multilateralism, and selective security and economic cooperation. This article argues that Turkey’s regional strategy is best understood as middle power diplomacy driven by strategic autonomy. Methods The study triangulates institutional and documentary analysis with an original cross-sectional perception survey (2023–2024), used as exploratory evidence. Results Central Asia functions for Turkey as a low-to-moderate cost arena to operationalize strategic autonomy while avoiding direct confrontation with dominant regional actors. Turkey’s leverage stems from the combination of connectivity initiatives aligned with regional diversification interests, soft-power infrastructure (education, cultural production, humanitarian visibility), and targeted defence-industrial cooperation that complements the existing security hierarchy. These practices are linked to domestic debates in Turkey over pan-Turkic identity narratives, the limits of socio-political Islam in external outreach, and Ankara’s contested relationship with Europe and the wider West. Discussion The findings indicate that Turkey’s influence in Central Asia is conditional and layered: it grows where identity and connectivity are translated into institutional routines and business networks, but remains constrained by Russia’s entrenched security role, China’s geo-economic scale, and uneven regional receptivity.