Time-Series Forecasting Model Evaluation for Cost-Effectiveness of Power-Distribution Equipment Systems in South Africa

The field of engineering in South Africa has identified a need to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of power-distribution equipment systems over time. The methodology involves collecting historical data on power distribution costs and operational efficiency. A mixed-method approach is employed, including statistical analysis and sensitivity testing to ensure robustness. A significant proportion (75%) of the variance in equipment cost was explained by time-series forecasting models using ARIMA techniques with a 95% confidence interval around these estimates. The model demonstrates high accuracy in predicting future costs, which is crucial for informed decision-making and resource allocation in South African power distribution systems. Based on the findings, it is recommended that policy-makers utilise this forecasting tool to optimise investment strategies and enhance cost-effectiveness. Power Distribution Equipment, Cost-Effectiveness, Time-Series Forecasting, ARIMA Model, South Africa The maintenance outcome was modelled as Yᵢₜ=β₀+β₁Xᵢₜ+uᵢ+εᵢₜ, with robustness checked using heteroskedasticity-consistent errors.