Abstract Modern complex adaptive systems are subject to accelerating parameter change, dense interdependence, and delayed adaptive responses. These characteristics substantially elevate the risk of critical transitions and cascading failures. Conventional indicator-based and quasi-static methods frequently fail to detect structural stress accumulation prior to bifurcation. Optimal System Dynamics (OSD) formalizes system behavior as the dynamic competition between destabilizing factors (complexity growth, external pressure, rate of change) and stabilizing mechanisms (adaptive capacity, institutional buffering, temporal delays). The framework explicitly incorporates rate-induced tipping, synergistic risk amplification, and hysteresis effects. OSD enables quantitative identification of elevated-risk zones and supports proactive trajectory management in macroeconomics, geopolitics, migration processes, and cognitive-information degradation.
Лукин et al. (Thu,) studied this question.