Modelling Malaria Case Counts at General Hospital Toto: A Chi-Square and Poisson Regression Approach

In sub-Sahara Africa, malaria continue to be a serious public health concern, with Nigeria accounting for a sizable share of cases and fatalities worldwide. The study examined secondary hospital records of malaria patients who ever seen at General Hospital Toto between 2010 and 2024. To ascertain the temporal trend, demographic traits and prevalence pattern. To investigate the relationship between malaria cases and demographic factors (gender and age group) and to determine annual trends, Descriptive statistics, Chi-square and Poisson regression model were utilized. Analysis was done on 749 cases of malaria. Nearly 58.7% of cases included men, while 41.3% involved women. children aged 0–9 years had lowest prevalence (5.9%). Whereas adult aged 20–39 years’ account for more than half (50.8%) of all the reported cases. There was no statistically significant association between malaria cases and gender (p = 0.258) or age group (p = 0.412), according to chi-square analysis. with an estimated 3% annual increases (p = 0.04) Poisson regression revealed a statistically significant increase trend in malaria incidence over time. the result point ta an increasing malaria burden at Toto general hospital, with young and middle-aged persons being disproportionately affected. To lower the spread of malaria and enhance health outcomes, more preventative measures, enhanced diagnostic capabilities and ongoing surveillance are required.