Deformation Prediction and Potential Landslide Identification in the Upstream of Sarez Lake Based on Time Series InSAR and Stacked LSTM

The identification of potential landslides and targeted risk analysis is crucial for the warning and prevention of geological landslide disasters. This article presents a time series deformation prediction framework based on a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network deep learning model for analyzing Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data. By employing an advanced stacked LSTM network model, we effectively capture temporal dependencies and move beyond traditional methods that depend on explicit deformation. This approach enables short- to medium-term deformation prediction through structured time dynamic modeling, identifies potential landslide targets in the high-altitude regions upstream of Lake Sarez, and classifies associated risk levels. The results indicate that: (1) In short-term forecasting, the stacked LSTM model effectively captures trend turning points, producing stable and reliable predictions with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.164 mm and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.194 mm; (2) From 2019 to 2022, regional surface deformation characteristics exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, with the potential landslide on the right bank identified as the most critical settlement center, demonstrating a line of sight (LOS) deformation rate consistently exceeding 49 mm per year, while the Usoi Dam displayed relatively good stability during this period; (3) By integrating InSAR deformation rate maps with Sentinel-2 optical images, we identified a total of 72 potential landslide targets in the region, four of which exhibited deformation rates exceeding −30 mm per year, indicating significant activity and classifying them as high-risk areas requiring attention. This provides a targeted reference list for the prevention and control of geological landslides around Lake Sarez and establishes a reliable technical pathway for the early identification of landslides under complex geological conditions in high-altitude mountainous areas.