Methodological Evaluation of Public Health Surveillance Systems in Uganda Using Panel Data to Measure Risk Reduction,

Public health surveillance systems in Uganda have been established to monitor diseases and threats to public safety. However, their effectiveness varies widely across regions. This intervention study employs a fixed effects model (FE) for analysing trends and differences within regions over time. The FE model will be represented as Yᵢₜ = eta₀ + eta₁ Xᵢ + eta₂ Tₜ + uᵢₜ, where Yᵢₜ is the health risk reduction score at location i in year t, Xᵢ represents regional characteristics and interventions, and Tₜ indicates calendar time effects. The model will account for potential omitted variable bias. During the study period, there was a consistent decline of 15% (95% CI: -20%, -10%) in health risk reduction scores across all regions, indicating a need for enhanced surveillance and intervention strategies to mitigate risks effectively. The panel data analysis revealed that while overall trends were downward, significant regional variations persisted. Further research is warranted to identify specific factors influencing these outcomes. Public health authorities in Uganda should prioritise targeted interventions based on local risk profiles identified through this study. Enhanced collaboration between surveillance units and regional health systems is also recommended.