Time-Series Forecasting Model for Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation of Community Health Centres in Kenya

Community health centers (CHCs) play a crucial role in healthcare delivery in Kenya, but their cost-effectiveness over time remains underexplored. A mixed-methods approach was employed, integrating quantitative data from financial records with qualitative feedback to forecast future trends in CHC operations. The study utilised a linear regression model for cost-effectiveness analysis. The time-series forecasting revealed an increasing trend in the operational costs of CHCs over the five-year period (-), with a proportion increase of 15% compared to previous years. The study concludes that while there is a need for sustained investment and policy support, proactive cost management strategies can mitigate these increasing operational costs. Stakeholders are recommended to implement evidence-based intervention programmes and to engage in continuous quality improvement initiatives to enhance the efficiency of CHCs. Treatment effect was estimated with logit(pᵢ)=β₀+β^ Xᵢ, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.