Economic Sanctions as a Catalyst for Structural Change: Assessing the Effectiveness of Import Substitution Based on the Integral Index

In the context of the transformation of economic sanctions from an instrument of extraordinary policy into a permanent element of international relations, the problem of import dependence is becoming critical. This study aims not only to confirm the thesis of sanctions as a catalyst for structural changes, but also to offer a comprehensive tool for assessing their actual effectiveness, as well as the effectiveness of the import substitution policy. For this purpose, the study developed and tested an integral index of technological sovereignty and competitiveness, combining key indicators of localization, non-primary exports and innovation activity. The objectives of the study include analyzing the impact of sanctions on structural changes in the economy in 2014-2024; developing a methodology for assessing import substitution that takes into account not only the level of localization, but also the dynamics of non-resource exports and innovation potential; identifying industry imbalances and the «innovation lag» in the implementation of current policy.Based on empirical studies, the optimal weight values of each component of the integral index have been identified. An analysis of data on the Russian economy for the period from 2014 to 2024 using this index allowed us to obtain specific results. They indicate a significant adaptive effectiveness of the import substitution policy, expressed in the steady growth of the index. However, the results also revealed a systemic imbalance: tactical successes in import substitution and increasing traditional exports have not yet been supported by an adequate breakthrough in creating their own competitive technologies. Thus, the sanctions have created the necessary window of opportunity, but the transition to a model of sustainable technological growth requires a fundamental reorientation of priorities towards generating innovation and high-tech exports.