ShellCast: A Harvest Closure Forecast and Notification System for Shellfish Farmers and Harvesters

Highlights A web application, ShellCast, was created to issue near-term temporary shellfish harvest closures. ShellCast’s final version uses the probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast on the backend. A pilot program was organized to evaluate end-user perspectives on the tool. ShellCast is most useful for growers managing farms in waters with low rainfall thresholds. ABSTRACT. Farmers and harvesters of molluscan shellfish (e.g., clams, oysters, mussels) in estuarine waters must adapt to periodic temporary harvest closures due to water quality concerns, which are issued without advance notice. Shellfish sanitation programs commonly use rainfall thresholds to assess water quality impairment risks (e.g., 2 inches of rain in 24 hours) and make decisions on temporary harvest closures. To help shellfish farmers and harvesters anticipate near-term closures, we created ShellCast, a forecast and notification system that alerts users when closure risk is moderate to very high today, tomorrow, or in two days. In this Research Brief, we summarize the development of the ShellCast web application for shellfish growing areas in North Carolina, USA, and changes made to accommodate its expansion to South Carolina and Florida. We also summarize findings from a pilot deployment program that was organized with end-users from North Carolina in which participants were asked to describe their experiences with, and perceptions of, ShellCast. ShellCast application development has iterated through the use of different rainfall forecast products and methods on the backend, with the U.S. National Weather Service’s Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast driving the present-day version of ShellCast. From the pilot deployment program, we learned that text and email notifications were the most appreciated features of the ShellCast web application and that the forecasts are most useful for those who manage leases in waters with low rainfall thresholds where frequent closures are relatively more common. Findings from the development and evaluation of ShellCast could be used by others who are seeking to create decision-support tools for recreational fishers and food producers who are subject to weather-driven disruptions.