Empirical Analysis of Hydrological Loading and Seasonal Micro-Seismicity in the Garhwal Himalayas

This study investigates the relationship between seasonal hydrological loading and micro-seismic activity in the Garhwal Himalayas. Using a Python-based computational pipeline, earthquake data was extracted from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards API and analyzed alongside regional climatological rainfall data spanning 2010–2025. The empirical analysis demonstrates a strong inverse correlation between monsoon rainfall and seismic activity. During peak monsoon months, increased hydrological loading suppresses fault movement through enhanced normal stress, while winter drainage phases correspond with increased micro-seismicity due to fault unclamping. Statistical testing using Pearson correlation and Ordinary Least Squares regression confirms a significant negative correlation between rainfall intensity and earthquake frequency. These findings support the Coulomb failure stress hypothesis and suggest that seasonal hydrological loading can modulate the timing of tectonic events in high-altitude orogenic systems.