The proliferation of low-cost unmanned aerial systems (UAS) has created an unprecedented cost-exchange asymmetry in modern air defense, exemplified by the expenditure of 3-5 million interceptor missiles against drone threats costing as little as 20, 000. This quantitative study conducted a comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis of counter-UAS (C-UAS) technologies across kinetic, electronic warfare (EW), and directed energy weapon (DEW) domains during the critical period of 2022-2026. Utilizing publicly available datasets from Oryx, SIPRI, and ACLED, combined with defense industry specifications and operational data from the Ukraine conflict, this research developed and applied the Multi-Layered Defense Economics Model (MLDEM) to evaluate 19 distinct C-UAS systems against standardized threat profiles. The analysis employed descriptive statistics, Kruskal-Wallis H-tests, Mann-Whitney U-tests, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), and Monte Carlo simulation with 10, 000 iterations to assess cost-effectiveness metrics, technology readiness, and operational sustainability. Results revealed that cost-per-engagement (CPE) varies by more than five orders of magnitude across system categories, ranging from approximately 0. 01 for EW systems to 4. 75 million for advanced missile interceptors. Statistical analysis demonstrated significant differences between technology categories (H = 13. 92, p = 0. 0009, ε² = 0. 745), with DEW and gun-based kinetic systems achieving consistently favorable cost-exchange ratios against mass drone threats. Hypotheses H1a, H1b, and H2 were supported, indicating that DEW systems achieve CPE ratios below 500 per engagement, gun-based systems below 2, 000 per engagement, and multi-layered architectures outperform single-technology solutions. Hypothesis H3, positing a positive correlation between technology readiness level and cost-effectiveness, was not supported (ρ = -0. 404, p = 0. 086). These findings provide empirical foundations for defense acquisition decisions, demonstrating that economically sustainable C-UAS architectures require a diversified technology portfolio prioritizing directed energy and gun-based effectors over missile systems for high-volume drone defense scenarios.
Laszlo Pokorny (Mon,) studied this question.