Introduction Against the backdrop of intensifying resource constraints, severe environmental pollution, and ecosystem degradation, the optimization of agricultural technology structures has emerged as a pivotal pathway for promoting high-quality agricultural development. This study employs a multi-dimensional empirical framework to examine the driving mechanisms of technological structural change and its spatial spillover effects. Methods Based on panel data from 14 prefectures in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2022, this study measures the degree of technological structural change and the level of high-quality agricultural development. By employing the entropy weight method, spatial autocorrelation tests, and spatial econometric models, we analyze the spatial spillover effects of technological structural change on high-quality agricultural development in Xinjiang. To ensure the reliability of the research findings, endogeneity treatments and robustness checks are conducted. Furthermore, this paper highlights two pathways through which technological structural change influences high-quality agricultural development and provides a analysis of the heterogeneous characteristics across different regions and time periods. Results The levels of high-quality agricultural development and technological structure change in Xinjiang have exhibited an overall upward trend. However, significant developmental disparities between the northern and southern regions have undermined Xinjiang’s holistic competitive advantage in agriculture. Technological structure change not only drives high-quality agricultural development in Xinjiang but also generates diffusion effects both within and across regions. Furthermore, agricultural scale operations and the optimization of agricultural industrial structures serve as pivotal pathways through which technological structural change promotes high-quality agricultural development. The impact of technological structural change exhibits pronounced regional and temporal heterogeneity: the promotional effect is significantly stronger in northern Xinjiang than in southern Xinjiang, and the effect during 2013–2022 is higher than that during 2000–2012. Discussion This study provides empirical evidence for optimizing the agricultural technological structure and formulating differentiated regional policies. It highlights the role of technological structural change in advancing high-quality agricultural development amid Chinese-style modernization. Although grounded in specific context of oasis agriculture in Xinjiang, the identified mechanisms of technological structural change and the observed patterns of spatial spillovers retain values across broader geographical backgrounds and institutional contexts.
Du et al. (Tue,) studied this question.