Electric vehicles (EVs) emit substantially fewer air pollutants than conventional internal combustion engine vehicles. However, the continuous increase in electricity demand from the power grid for EV charging, resulting from the growing adoption and total vehicle miles traveled, leads to higher greenhouse gas emissions from the power sector. This study presents a predictive analysis of energy sector greenhouse gas emissions from EV charging at the regional level across the United States under various projection scenarios of technology costs, fuel prices, demand growth, and electricity sector policies. The predictive modeling of greenhouse gas emissions from EV charging is performed using a machine learning model developed on the Meta Prophet platform designed to capture temporal patterns and seasonality with a high level of precision. Trained on simulation data from the Cambium model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), our model provides accurate and continuous predictions of CO2, N2O, and CH4 emission rates from EV charging through 2050 under eight power generation planning scenarios, each outlining different projections for costs, prices, demand, and policy outcomes. Our analysis suggests that, by 2030, total grid emissions of CO2, N2O, and CH4 from EV battery charging in the United States are projected to decline by 52.67%, 65.71%, and 53.65%, respectively, compared to 2025 under the mid-case scenario, despite an overall increase of 152.57% in EV electricity demand. By 2050, emissions are expected to decline further by 80.13%, 94.15%, and 75.62%, respectively, with total EV electricity demand rising by 802.02%. Our scenario analysis results underscore the pivotal role of regional energy mixes and the pace of renewable energy deployment in decarbonizing transportation through electrification, highlighting the urgent need for proactive policy measures to accelerate the adoption of clean and renewable energy technologies in order to meet long-term climate targets.
Amirgholy et al. (Tue,) studied this question.