Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent in Alberta, Canada, with growing implications for electricity demand. This study examined how extreme hot and cold temperature events influence electricity consumption across eight major population centers in the province. Using daily maximum and minimum temperature, we identified extreme days based on percentile-based thresholds and evaluated their temporal trends from 1961 to 2023. The trend analysis revealed a significant increase in hot days frequency, particularly since 1991, with northern and central regions (0.50 – 0.67 days/year) experiencing the most pronounced warming. Conversely, cold days have declined significantly across all locations. Daily electricity usage showed a U-shaped relationship with temperature as consumption increased during both hot and cold extremes. Except for Lethbridge in the south, where demand peaked on hot days, all other locations had higher loads on cold days, followed by hot days, and the lowest on normal days. While cold days generally drive the greatest usage, several southern and central cities (e.g., Calgary, Medicine Hat) also showed elevated demand during heat events. Moreover, the relationship between temperature extremes and electricity use intensified over time, reflected by steeper slopes and stronger correlation coefficients in recent years. For instance, in Calgary, the additional demand per degree Celsius of maximum temperature on hot days rose from 0.29 GWh/°C in 2011–2012 to 0.49 GWh/°C in 2018–2019. These results underscore the escalating influence of climate extremes on Alberta’s electricity system and reinforce the need for adaptive, climate-resilient energy strategies.
Aryal et al. (Tue,) studied this question.