A Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of Municipal Infrastructure Asset Management Systems for Risk Reduction in Ethiopia

"background": "Municipal infrastructure in many developing nations faces significant degradation, increasing public safety risks. Systematic asset management is promoted as a solution, but robust evidence of its effectiveness for risk reduction in low-resource contexts is scarce. ", "purpose and objectives": "This study aimed to quantify the causal impact of implementing structured municipal infrastructure asset management systems on engineering risk levels within an Ethiopian urban context. ", "methodology": "A quasi-experimental, difference-in-differences design was employed, comparing six intervention municipalities implementing a new asset management system with six matched control municipalities. Infrastructure risk was measured via a composite index derived from technical inspections. The treatment effect was estimated using a fixed-effects panel model: Risk{it = \0 + \1 (Treatmenti \ Postt) + \ + \ +, with cluster-robust standard errors. ", "findings": "Municipalities implementing the asset management system demonstrated a statistically significant reduction in their mean infrastructure risk index compared to controls. The estimated average treatment effect was a 22. 3% reduction (95% CI: 18. 1 to 26. 5). Thematic analysis of implementation records identified proactive maintenance scheduling as the most strongly correlated component with risk reduction. ", "conclusion": "Formalised asset management systems can yield substantial and measurable reductions in municipal infrastructure risk within resource-constrained settings. The causal evidence strengthens the engineering-economic case for systematic investment in such management frameworks. ", "recommendations": "Municipal authorities should prioritise the adoption of standardised asset management systems, with particular emphasis on enabling proactive maintenance workflows. National policy should support capacity building and provide guidance for contextual adaptation of these systems. ", "key words": "asset management, infrastructure risk, quasi-experimental, difference-in-differences, municipal engineering, maintenance planning", "contribution statement": "This paper provides novel, causal evidence on the efficacy of asset management for risk reduction in a sub-Saharan African context, employing a rigorous