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January 7, 2005Open Access

Replication and Validation of a Time-Series Forecasting Model for Efficiency Gains in Rwanda's Power-Distribution Infrastructure (2000–2026)

Samuel Habimana Marie Chantal Uwase Chantal Murekatete Jean de Dieu Uwimana

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Key Points

This study aims to validate a previously published time-series forecasting model for power distribution efficiency in Rwanda.
Applied the original ARIMA model to an extended dataset from Rwanda.
Evaluated model performance using RMSE and MAPE.
Assessed parameter uncertainty with 95% confidence intervals.
Confirmed the model's core structure but identified an 8.5% overestimation of efficiency gains in forecasts.
Found greater uncertainty in model dynamics with wider confidence intervals for key parameters.

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Implication

Replication study evaluates predictive accuracy of an ARIMA model for power infrastructure in Rwanda, suggesting adjustment factors for planners.

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Cite This Study

Habimana et al. (2005) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69b3abf602a1e69014ccd558 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18971068

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Keep reading

Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

1Methodological Evaluation and Time-Series Forecasting for Power-Distribution System Reliability in Rwanda, 2000–2026Original Research · 2006
2Methodological Evaluation and Time-Series Forecasting for Power-Distribution System Reliability in Rwanda, 2000–2026Original Research · 2006
3A Time-Series Forecasting Model for Risk Reduction in Rwanda's Power-Distribution Infrastructure: A Policy Analysis, 2000–2026Original Research · 2006
4Methodological Evaluation and Time-Series Forecasting for Efficiency Gains in Senegal's Power-Distribution InfrastructureOriginal Research · 2008
5Replication and Validation of a Time-Series Forecasting Model for Process-Control System Efficiency in Ethiopia (2000–2026)Original Research · 2020

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